8:20:47 PM  

On a recent trip to see family members, I began to make unscientific and unprovable speculations about the impact of $4/gallon gasoline on the U.S. economy. My speculations are stupid-wild-assed-guesses, but so far no one has tried to argue their conclusions are terribly off-base. Sure there are plenty of assumptions and vague misrepresentations involved. Here is one, I apparently assume that gas is free now, when actually it costs us all quite a bit. Here is another, to derive some of the figures, I would have to run my car down to fumes in the tank before any fill up. There are several attacks on my conclusions that are not countered or covered in any way, shape or form. That said, there are also factors that if accurately applied would make the outcome worse. I simply tried on some thoughts about the cost of gasoline and the economy to see how they fit. Sad to say, they feel about right or perhaps even a bit optimistic. I'll leave it to somebody else to prove me wrong and correct the overall picture.

Here are the hilights.

• Median families in the U.S. could easily spend 10% to 13% of their total income on gasoline for personal transportation.
• The cost of transporting goods could easily add 3% to 5% to the cost of goods
• The U.S. national savings rate is 0% and there is no easy place to find the additional 13% to 18% that is will cost to live